For punters who are looking to make long-term gains over the bookies, positive EV betting is one of the best, yet more advanced strategies to learn.

In this guide, we will cover everything you need to know. From the basics of understanding expected value, as well as all the advanced strategies you can implement to consistently beat the bookies.

What is Positive Expected Value Betting (EV)

When we want to bet, we do not want luck on our side. Rather we want maths. Maths doesn’t lie. The concept of positive EV betting is making money bets where you have the egde over the book. This does not mean you win every bet. In fact, you actually might lose more than you win, but as long as the odds are favourable, you will be up.

Expected Value (EV) is a mathematical concept that helps you weighs the probabilities of outcomes and determines what the expected outcome is to be (on average). It measures the potential profit or loss you can expect if you placed the same bet repeatedly.

It is important to understand the EV calculation:

EV=(Probability of Winning × Payout)−(Probability of Losing × Stake)

Here’s a breakdown of the formula:

• Probability of Winning: The likelihood (as a percentage) that your bet will win.
• Payout: The total return you’ll receive if the bet wins, including your stake.
• Probability of Losing: The likelihood (as a percentage) that your bet will lose.
• Stake: The amount of money you risk.

If the result of this calculation, you have a positive EV bet.

But here is the dirty secret of the gambling industry. 99% of the odds you see posted by gambling agencies are negative EV. Let me explain:

Why are most bets negative EV?

Most bets are negative EV because bookmakers include a margin in their odds – this is how they make their money. Bookmaker odds are generally very sharp, meaning they accurately reflect the probability of outcomes. If they aren’t initially accurate, they adjust quickly. Bookmakers are billion-dollar companies that specialise in setting profitable odds, so it’s safe to assume they’re getting it right. Sportsbet’s parent’s company has a tiday $50B valuation. So ye, their odds are pretty hard to beat (for most…)

The bookie margin is easiest to understand with line betting, where the odds are close to even. For example, in a 50/50 market, you might see odds of 1.90 to 1.90. This suggests an equal chance of winning. In a fair market, you should be getting 100% return on 50% odds i.e. 2.00 odds. But instead of a 100% return on your bet, you only get 90%. The missing 10% is the bookmaker's margin.